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YUJ v3.0 · DUAL-LOOP STRATEGY · 2026 — 2030

YUJ v3.0 · Dual-Loop Strategy Core Capabilities · Dual-Loop (Business + Capital) · SCO Collaboration

This report systematically addresses six core questions:
Q1 Core Competitiveness Q2 Industry Problems Solved Q3 Profitability Q4 Business & Capital Dual-Loop Q5 Capital Integration Q6 SCO Collaboration
Built on long-term, deep client relationships, YUJ operates an integrated online-offline supply-chain platform for Middle East building materials, layered with a Business Loop (procurement advance + bankers' acceptances) and a Capital Loop (bulk-import agency payment) to form a cross-border industrial capital-circulation system serving the SCO region's trade & investment facilitation and local-currency settlement.
Strategy Versionv3.0 Dual-Loop
Core Questions6 Capabilities
Business ScaleRMB 25bn Exposure
Capital CirculationMideast ⇄ China
Collaboration CoreSCO 4 Roles
Q1 · Highlights
Core Highlights
Q2 · Industry Pain
Industry Problems Solved
Q3 · Profitability
Profitability
Q4 · Dual-Loop
Business & Capital Loop
Q5 · Capital
Capital Integration
Q6 · SCO
SCO Collaboration
★ Data Cockpit · Business / Financial Modeling · SCO KPI Status
Deep-dive data (TAM/SAM/SOM · client funnel · unit economics) · dual-loop quantification model · 5-year P&L and cash-flow projection · dashboard of 9 SCO KPIs with achievement rates. Figures are strategic projections with key assumptions noted.
View §09–§12 →
01

Core Highlights (Competitive Advantages Overview)

Q1 · Core Highlights
Strategic positioning: YUJ is positioned as a cross-border industrial supply-chain and capital-circulation infrastructure operator for the SCO region—built on long-term, deep client relationships, operating an integrated online-offline supply-chain platform for Middle East building materials, layered with dual financial capabilities: a Business Loop (procurement advance + bankers' acceptances) and a Capital Loop (bulk-import agency payment). Unlike traditional trading-hub models that lack stable supply-demand structures, financial services and digitalization, YUJ directly serves the SCO's core strategic objectives of "trade & investment facilitation, local-currency settlement, supply-chain resilience and digital-economy cooperation."
Long-term, deep client relationships
Years of deep engagement with Middle East SOEs and large general contractors, accumulating genuine transaction data and credit profiles—the data and trust foundation for advances, credit lines and BA collection, which fragmented trading hubs cannot replicate.
Integrated online-offline supply-chain platform
An online platform (selection / matching / data) integrated with offline operations (overseas bonded warehouses / showrooms / processing / logistics), delivering transparent transactions and traceable fulfilment that ensures certainty of genuine physical delivery.
Stable two-sided ecosystem
Supply side: 52 domestic branded suppliers in deep collaboration and continuously expanding; demand side: buyers across 14 countries + SOEs + 1,500 general contractors, forming a sustainable two-sided ecosystem—rather than a low-stability hub with shrinking supply and transient demand.
Business-loop financial capability
Provides procurement advances to Middle East SOEs and collects bankers' acceptances (BA), which can be discounted / circulated / securitized—upgrading "trade services" into "trade + finance."
Capital loop + capital integration + SCO collaboration
BA-settled funds flow back to support domestic bulk-import agency payment, forming a capital circulation; while integrating SWF / PE / insurance / anchor capital, and obtaining policy endorsement through the SCO's four roles.
Integrated moat
Client relationships + supply-chain integration + digital platform + financial capability + policy resources form a five-fold systemic barrier that is hard to replicate, supporting the sustainable operation of RMB 25bn in external exposure.
Stable suppliers
52
Domestic branded suppliers
Stable buyers
14 ctry
+ SOEs + 1,500 GCs
Platform form
Online + Offline
Integrated supply chain
Financial capability
Dual-Loop
Business + Capital
02

Which Core Industry Problems Are Solved (Pain Points × YUJ Solutions)

Q2 · Industry Problems Solved
YUJ simultaneously resolves three structural pain points at the industry level: ① the "ghost-town" dilemma of Middle East building-material distribution · ② the financing and fulfilment dilemma of Chinese building materials going global · ③ the efficiency and compliance dilemma of cross-border capital.

Pain Domain ① · The "ghost-town" dilemma of Middle East building-material distribution

Industry painTraditional hub status quo
Yiwu Mideast market / Dubai Dragon Mart / trade ghost towns
YUJ solutionValue
No stable buyersRetail / transient clients; demand collapses on volatilityLong-term lock-in of SOEs + GCs + buyers across 14 countriesAdvance / credit-eligible
Continuous supplier attritionStall tenants leave; increasingly deserted52 branded suppliers in deep collaboration, continuously expandingStable sourcing + bargaining power
Destructive price warsHomogeneous low-price competition; razor-thin marginsValue pricing + service premium + supply-chain integrationSustainable margins
No financial servicesCash-only trade; no advance / credit termsEmbedded advance + BA + SBLC + supply-chain financeFinancial fees + spreads
No digitalizationPurely offline stalls; opaque transactionsOnline platform + BHDP title registration + data accumulationTransparent + traceable

Pain Domain ② · The financing and fulfilment dilemma of Chinese building materials going global

Industry painYUJ solutionSupporting mechanism
Hard financing / heavy capital lock-upPlatform advances payment; suppliers receive funds quicklyJSPF joint surety pool + BA Pool + supply-chain finance
Difficult / slow cross-border settlementLocal-currency settlement + BHDP SWIFT gateway + multi-currency poolCNY-AED primary settlement + CIPS connectivity
Difficult cargo-title controlOverseas bonded warehouse + consortium-chain title registration + IoT digital twinBHDP 12 modules + four-party checks-and-balances
High buyer credit riskBA bankers' acceptance (issued by Middle East A-rated banks) + SINOSURESWIFT MT760 verification + 5-layer counter-guarantee
Long collection cycleBA discounting / circulation / ABS to recover funds earlyCross-border note secondary market (SHCH / Marco Polo)

Pain Domain ③ · The efficiency and compliance dilemma of cross-border capital

Industry painYUJ solutionValue
Single-use funds, low efficiencyBA-settled funds → bulk-import agency payment → returns flow back, multi-round circulationMulti-round returns on the same funds
High cross-border FX costFunds circulate domestically, not remitted outLower FX and spread leakage
Sanctions / compliance riskLocal-currency settlement + domestic capital circulation + diversified bank poolSubstantially reduced cross-border exposure
Costly financing for domestic importersCash-on-delivery agency payment (my103) + low-cost financing via cargo-title pledgeEased capital lock-up + low cost
Core thesis: YUJ achieves a value-chain step-up from "trade matching" to "trade + supply-chain finance + cross-border capital-circulation orchestration." Most market participants stop at the transaction-matching layer, whereas YUJ—leveraging a stable two-sided supply-demand ecosystem and fulfilment certainty—possesses the qualifications and risk-control foundation to conduct procurement advances, BA aggregation and capital circulation. This is the fundamental differentiation that enables its dual-loop and contributes incremental trade facilitation and local-currency settlement to the SCO region.
03

Profitability (Diversified Revenue Engines + Profit Structure)

Q3 · Profitability
YUJ's profitability does not rely on a single trade spread, but on a diversified revenue structure with four stacked layers: "trade + platform + finance + capital." Through the v1.0 → v2.0 → v3.0 evolution, revenue engines expand from a single "trade spread" to 8 engines, with gross margin and revenue quality steadily improving.

8 Revenue Engines (Trade / Platform / Finance / Capital)

#Revenue engineLayerRevenue sourceGross margin ref.IntroducedRevenue quality
1Trade spreadTradeBuilding-material buy-sell spread (selection / pooling / distribution)8-15%v1.0Base
2Platform service feesPlatformListing fees + transaction commission + membership60-80%v2.0High-quality
3Matching commissionPlatformB2B / B2C matching, % of GMV50-70%v2.0High-quality
4SaaS + dataPlatformBHDP SaaS subscription + data services70-85%v2.0High-quality
5Supply-chain financeFinanceReceivables / inventory / order financing spreadspread 3-6%v2.0Steady
6Advance service feeFinanceService fee for advancing on behalf of SOEs2-4%v3.0Steady
7BA discount spreadFinanceSpread from holding/discounting/circulating/ABS of BAspread 2-5%v3.0Steady
8Import agency-payment spreadCapitalBulk-import agency-payment service fee + funding spreadspread 3-6%v3.0Steady
Trade layer share
~35%
Buy-sell spread · scale base
Platform layer share
~30%
High margin · asset-light
Finance layer share
~25%
Spreads · steady cash flow
Capital layer share
~10%
New in v3.0 · circulation gain
Revenue Engine Evolution · v1.0 → v2.0 → v3.0 (engine count & margin quality) v1.0 1 engine Trade spread Blended margin ~12% v2.0 5 engines + Platform / matching + SaaS / SCF Blended margin ~28% v3.0 ★ 8 engines + Advance fee + BA discount spread + Agency-payment spread Blended margin ~35%
Fig. 03-1 · Revenue engine evolution (engines 1 → 5 → 8 · blended margin 12% → 28% → 35%)
Profitability conclusion: YUJ's profit structure follows a four-layer progression of "trade scale base + high-margin platform contribution + stable financial spreads + capital-circulation gain." The key v3.0 breakthrough is the capital layer—the same funds are reused across multiple rounds within the dual-loop, generating multi-round returns without additional principal, materially lifting return on equity (ROE) and cash-flow quality while simultaneously scaling regional local-currency settlement and cross-border trade finance.
04

Business-Loop Capability (Platform Advance + BA Collection)

Q4-A · Business Loop
Business Loop: A Middle East SOE places an order → the platform reviews credit and advances payment → YUJ's supply-chain platform stocks and supplies the goods → the SOE issues a bankers' acceptance (BA) to the platform → the platform discounts / circulates / pools the BA → the BA is honored at maturity and funds are recovered. Capital direction is Mideast → China; in essence it leverages YUJ's fulfilment certainty and SOE credit to convert trade flows into financeable BA assets, providing underlying assets for regional cross-border trade finance and local-currency settlement.
Business Loop 6 steps (advance → supply → collect BA → recover) ①SOE order Material procurement ②Platform advance Credit check + advance ③YUJ supply Bonded-WH delivery ④Issue BA Bankers' acceptance ⑤Hold BA Discount/circulate/pool ⑥Honor at maturity Funds recovered BA funds recovered → settled fund pool (links to §05 Capital Loop)
Fig. 04-1 · Business-loop process (three roles: SOE Applicant · Platform Beneficiary · Middle East A-rated Issuing Bank)
Served party
Mideast SOEs
Sovereign/quasi-sovereign credit
Payment instrument
BA
A-rated bank + MT760
Capital direction
Mideast → China
Procurement → BA
Platform return
Fee + spread
2-5%
Risk control: Advances only to credit-assessed SOEs; BA must be accepted by Middle East A-rated banks (FAB / NBD / QNB) and verified via SWIFT MT760; single-counterparty exposure is capped and included in a 5-layer counter-guarantee; fulfilment relies on overseas bonded warehouses + BHDP title registration to ensure genuine delivery.
05

Capital-Loop Capability (Bulk-Import Agency Payment + Cash-on-Delivery + Title-Clearance Advance)

Q4-B · Capital Loop
Capital Loop: The Middle East funds settled from the Business Loop (the BA fund pool) are not remitted out but converted into agency-payment platform funds to provide import agency payment to domestic bulk-commodity importers. Clients order on a cash-on-delivery basis (my103 model); upon arrival at port, the platform advances payment, takes the cargo title first and clears customs; after the client pays VAT, it takes delivery and repays in tranches, with principal + returns flowing back to the pool—funds circulate and appreciate domestically.
Capital Loop 7 steps (pool → agency pay → title clearance → tranche delivery/repay → return) ①Mideast pool BA settled→agency funds ②Domestic importer Bulk-commodity demand ③Apply for agency pay Cash-on-delivery my103 ④Platform advance Take title first + clear ⑤Pay VAT Compliant tax ⑥Tranche delivery/repay Release after payment ⑦Returns flow back Principal + spread Capital cycle
Fig. 05-1 · Capital-loop process (core controls: take title first · title pledge · release after payment · VAT compliance)
Mideast funder
Stable return
Agency spread + fee
Domestic client
Low-cost financing
COD · eased lock-up
Platform
Spread + fee
Title pledge · controllable
Capital trait
Stays onshore
Avoid FX + sanctions
Risk control: ① Title authenticity—BHDP on-chain title registration + third-party warehouse supervision to prevent double pledging; ② Tranche-delivery discipline—strict "release after payment"; title for unpaid portions is not transferred; ③ VAT compliance—paid by the client per law; the platform does not advance tax; ④ Commodity price volatility—dynamic collateral ratios (stricter for copper / iron ore / crude); ⑤ Duration matching—BA-settled funds matched to agency-payment tenor to prevent liquidity mismatch.
06

Dual-Loop Synergy (Business × Capital · Cross-Border Capital-Circulation System)

Q4-C · Dual-Loop Synergy
Dual-Loop Capital-Circulation System (Mideast ⇄ China) ① Business Loop Mideast→China · collect BA ② Capital Loop Settled funds→bulk-import agency pay MideastSOE Advancecollect BA YUJ supplyBonded WH Fund poolBA settled Agency paytitle+clear ImporterCOD Platform Hub YUJ + SCO + BHDP BA pool → agency-pay pool Same funds, multi-round BA into pool Fund allocation
Fig. 06-1 · Dual-loop capital-circulation system (Business Loop + Capital Loop · converging at the Platform Hub)

Business Loop × Capital Loop · Synergy Value

Synergy dimensionBusiness Loop (§04)Capital Loop (§05)
Capital directionMideast → China (procurement payment forms BA)Fund pool → domestic bulk import (agency pay)
Capital formBA bankers' acceptance → settled fund poolSettled funds → agency funds → returns flow back
Core collateralSOE credit + BA issuing-bank acceptanceCommodity cargo title (B/L / warehouse receipt) pledge
Platform returnAdvance service fee + BA discount spreadAgency service fee + import agency-payment spread
LinkagePlatform Hub: BA pool → agency-pay pool; same funds recycled across rounds, funds stay onshore
Dual-loop value: The Business Loop generates a "financeable bankers'-acceptance asset" for YUJ, while the Capital Loop enables the corresponding funds to "appreciate continuously onshore." The two loops close at the Platform Hub, forming a complete capital cycle of "materials export → note settlement → bulk-import agency payment → return inflow"—multi-round reuse of funds with reduced cross-border exposure and FX risk. This marks YUJ's evolution from a "trading entity" to a "cross-border industrial capital-circulation orchestrator," providing substantive support to the SCO region's supply-chain stability and local-currency settlement.
07

Capital Integration Capability (Capital Structure + Instruments + Exits)

Q5 · Capital Integration
YUJ's capital-integration capability operates on three levels: ① a multi-tier equity capital stack · ② diversified financial instruments (turning trade/BA/cargo title into investable assets) · ③ multi-track exits and capital circulation. The BA assets and agency-payment assets generated by the dual-loop are precisely the "high-quality underlying assets" that attract sovereign funds, PE and insurance capital.

① Multi-Tier Equity Capital Stack

Capital tierTarget investorsRoleStage
Strategic anchorMiddle East SWFs Mubadala / PIF / QIA / ADQEndorsement + market access + large capitalLead in core rounds (A/B)
Industrial capitalBuilding-material leaders / SOE supply chains / logistics groupsSourcing / channels / fulfilment synergyStrategic round
Financial investors (PE)KKR / Blackstone / Middle East PE / top domestic fundsCapital + governance + Pre-IPO accelerationRounds B / C
Insurance / long-termInsurance AM / pensions / family officesLow-cost long-term capital matching dual-loop durationRound C / Pre-IPO
Policy capitalSCO Development Bank / Silk Road Fund / local-currency settlement poolPolicy low-cost funding + endorsementThroughout (see §08)

② Diversified Financial Instruments (turning business into investable assets)

InstrumentMechanismCapital-integration value
JSPF joint surety poolMulti-bank joint-credit surety pool, amplifying leverageUses limited own funds to leverage large procurement
BA Pool + ABSBA pooled and packaged, issued as asset-backed securitiesActivates BA, brings in institutional capital, early recovery
SBLC standby LCIssued by A-rated banks to enhance cross-border trade creditLowers counterparty risk, attracts conservative capital
Supply-chain finance ABSReceivables/inventory/order financing assets packagedCreates standardized investable assets for capital markets
Agency-payment asset rightsTransfer of beneficial rights of bulk-import agency assetsBrings in insurance/long-term capital, recycles the pool
Underlying quality
A-bank BA
Sovereign/quasi credit
Leverage
3-5×
JSPF surety pool
Capital circulation
Multi-round
Dual-loop gain
Exit channels
3-track IPO
HK/Mideast/A-share
③ Multi-track exits: The platform can be split into "supply-chain platform (high-valuation tech/platform profile) + financial assets (ABS/REITs-like) + trading entity," each connecting to three listing tracks—Hong Kong / Middle East (Tadawul / ADX) / A-share—complemented by BA ABS and agency-payment rights transfers to achieve capital-circulation exits. The dual-loop's sustainable cash flow underpins high valuation and institutional entry.
08

How to Collaborate with the SCO (4 Roles × YUJ Interface × Roadmap)

Q6 · SCO Collaboration
The SCO provides YUJ with four-fold empowerment—"policy endorsement + policy funding + market access + credit enhancement." In return, YUJ provides the SCO with "deployable digital supply-chain infrastructure + genuine cross-border trade scenarios," forming a complementary "policy—commercial" collaboration.

SCO 4 Roles × YUJ Interface

SCO roleVehicleEmpowerment for YUJYUJ interface
① Policy endorserSCO summit mechanism / member-state governmentsMarket access, policy legitimacy, lower political riskInclusion in SCO practical-cooperation projects
② Capital providerSCO Development Bank / Silk Road Fund / local-currency settlement poolPolicy low-cost funding + local-currency settlement channelApply for policy loans + connect to LC pool
③ Market connector26 countries (10 members + 2 observers + 14 dialogue partners)Coverage of Mideast GCC + Central Asia + South AsiaDeploy BHDP nodes in member states
④ Credit enhancerSCODA demonstration zone / multilateral guarantee mechanismsPolicy guarantees, credit enhancement, tax facilitiesRegister at Qingdao SCODA + enhancement

Dual-Loop × SCO Collaboration (Empowerment Mapping)

YUJ capabilitySCO empowermentCollaboration outcome
Business Loop (advance+BA)Development Bank policy funding + multilateral guarantee enhancementLower advance funding cost, broaden SOE coverage
Capital Loop (import agency pay)Local-currency settlement pool + policy-zone tax facilitiesOnshore capital circulation, avoid sanctions & FX
Digital platform BHDPSCO digital-infrastructure initiative + standards alignmentBHDP becomes SCO regional trade digital infrastructure
Capital integrationSilk Road Fund / SWF referrals + policy endorsementHigher institutional-capital appetite and valuation

YUJ's Quantified Contribution to the SCO's Core KPIs (2030E)

SCO strategic KPIYUJ quantified contribution (2030E)Enabling capability
Regional trade volume / trade & investment facilitationIncremental regional trade of RMB 29bn GMV; external exposure RMB 25bnIntegrated online-offline platform + 14-country coverage
Local-currency settlement share (de-dollarization)Local-currency (e.g., CNY-AED) settlement share target 60%Onshore Capital-Loop circulation + LC settlement pool
Cross-border trade-finance scaleBA note pool RMB 12bn + annual agency-payment flow RMB 22.4bnBusiness Loop (advance+BA) + Capital Loop (import agency pay)
Connectivity / logistics infrastructureOverseas bonded warehouse 30,000 m² + multi-country nodes in GCC/Central AsiaBonded-warehouse network + BHDP node layout
Digital-economy cooperationBHDP 12 modules; becomes regional trade digital-infrastructure standardConsortium-chain title registration + SWIFT gateway + smart contracts
Supply-chain resilience120 branded suppliers, 300k SKUs of stable supplyStable two-sided ecosystem + fulfilment certainty
Investment & capacity cooperationChannels SWF / PE / insurance capital into regional industryThree-tier capital stack (see §07)
Employment & livelihoodLocalized jobs in warehousing / logistics / platform operationsLocalized bonded-warehouse and platform operations

Quantified values follow the projection basis in §09–§12 (2030 targets). Each contribution can be tracked within the SCO's annual KPI assessment framework.

Collaboration Roadmap (3 Phases)

PhaseTimingCollaboration contentMilestone
P1 Onboarding2026-2027Register entity at Qingdao SCODA; join SCO practical cooperation; apply for policy loansPolicy endorsement secured + first policy funding
P2 Scale-up2027-2028Connect to LC settlement pool; deploy BHDP nodes in GCC/Central Asia; scale dual-loopLC settlement live + multi-country nodes
P3 Platformization2028-2030BHDP as regional trade digital infrastructure; BA ABS / agency-rights capitalization; 3-track IPORegional infra standard + capital exit
Collaboration-mechanism positioning: YUJ is the market-based delivery vehicle for the SCO's strategic objectives—translating organizational policy direction into "operable, profitable and replicable digital supply-chain and dual-loop financial infrastructure"; the SCO in turn provides YUJ with policy funding, credit endorsement and market access. Together they form a public-private partnership (PPP) of "policy objectives—market-based execution," giving YUJ's dual-loop strategy the institutional safeguards to operate at scale and in compliance within a complex geopolitical environment, and delivering measurable contributions to the SCO's core KPIs in trade & investment facilitation, local-currency settlement and connectivity.
09

Deep-Dive Data (Market · Client Funnel · Unit Economics)

Q · Deep-Dive Data
Basis: Data in this and §10–§12 are strategic projections (2026 baseline → 2030 target), denominated in RMB, with key assumptions noted. GMV = total platform matched + self-operated transaction value; net revenue = the platform's actually recognized revenue (take).
Market Layering · TAM / SAM / SOM (Mideast building-material import market, annual) TAM · ~RMB 600bn/yr Total GCC + Mideast building-material imports SAM · ~RMB 120bn/yr China-made materials + SOE/GC procurement SOM RMB 29bn GMV (2030E) 100% SAM/TAM ≈ 20% SOM/SAM ≈ 24% (penetration target)
Fig. 09-1 · Market-layering funnel (assumptions: Mideast building-material imports ~RMB 600bn/yr; China-made serviceable ~20%; YUJ 2030 SAM penetration ≈ 24%)
TAM
600bn
Mideast material imports/yr
SAM
120bn
China-made + SOE procurement
SOM 2030E
29bn
GMV · 24% penetration
2026 start
3bn
From 2.5% penetration

Client / Supply-Side Scale Drill-Down (2026 → 2030E)

Dimension20262027202820292030ECAGR
SOE clients (no.)813182225+33%
GC / distributor clients (no.)1,5002,2003,0003,6004,000+28%
Countries covered (no.)69111314+24%
Branded suppliers (no.)527292108120+23%
SKUs on sale (k)50110190260300+57%
GMV (RMB bn)3.07.514.021.029.0+76%

Assumptions: SOEs are high-ticket core clients (driving advances + BA); GCs/distributors contribute long-tail GMV and repeat purchases; the 76% GMV CAGR reflects non-linear growth from launch to scale.

Unit Economics (mature state, per client / year)

MetricSOE clientGC / distributor clientNotes
Annual GMVRMB 120mRMB 4.5mSOEs: high ticket, long cycle
Platform take rate10%9%Trade+platform+finance blended
Annual net revenueRMB 12mRMB 405k= GMV × take
Contribution margin55%48%Financial services lift SOE margin
Annual contribution profitRMB 6.6mRMB 194k= net revenue × margin
CACRMB 1.5mRMB 12kBD / travel / onboarding
Payback period~3 months~8 monthsHigh ticket → fast payback
LTV / CAC> 18×> 8×5-year retention basis

Assumptions: SOE retention 5 years at 90% annual; GC retention 3 years at 75% annual. LTV = annual contribution profit × retained years, discounted.

Data conclusion: YUJ's growth is driven by a dual engine—"a few high-ticket SOEs (driving finance and the dual-loop) + many long-tail GCs (contributing GMV and stickiness)." Per-SOE LTV/CAC > 18× with a payback of only ~3 months; unit economics are highly healthy and form the foundation supporting RMB 29bn GMV and the dual-loop capital scale.
10

Business-Model Modeling (Dual-Loop Quantification · BA Pool / Turnover / Reuse)

Q · Business Model
The core of the business model is "reusing the same funds across multiple rounds via the dual-loop." This section quantifies the Business Loop (BA pool size and turnover) and the Capital Loop (agency-payment scale and reuse), and models how the fund-reuse multiple amplifies returns.

Dual-Loop Quantified Drivers (2026 → 2030E, RMB bn)

Driver20262027202820292030E
External exposure (peak)4.09.016.022.025.0
Business Loop · BA pool size2.04.57.510.012.0
BA avg. turnover (days)120115110105100
BA annual turns3.03.23.33.53.65
Business Loop annual advance flow6.014.424.835.043.8
Capital Loop · agency-pay pool1.02.84.86.68.0
Annual fund reuse2.02.32.52.72.8
Capital Loop annual agency-pay flow2.06.412.017.822.4

Assumptions: BA pool ≈ external exposure × 48% (SOE acceptance ratio); annual advance flow = BA pool × turns; agency-payment funds come from the onshore-deployable portion of BA-settled funds; reuse rises with risk-control / system maturity.

Fund-Reuse Amplification (RMB 8bn principal · 2030E) Principal RMB 8bn Agency-pay pool Round 18.0 Round 28.0 Round 2.86.4 Annual agency-pay flow RMB 22.4bn = 8 × 2.8 reuse COD inflow → redeploy (funds stay onshore)
Fig. 10-1 · Fund-reuse amplification: RMB 8bn principal × 2.8 annual reuse = RMB 22.4bn annual agency-payment flow, generating multi-round spread income

Dual-Loop Financial Returns Estimate (2030E)

Return itemBaseFee/spreadAnnual return (RMB bn)
Business Loop · advance feeAdvance flow 43.80.6%0.26
Business Loop · BA discount spreadBA pool 123.0%0.36
Capital Loop · agency feeAgency-pay flow 22.40.8%0.18
Capital Loop · import agency spreadAgency pool 84.0% × 2.8 reuse0.90
Total dual-loop financial returns≈ RMB 1.7bn (~53% of 2030 net revenue)

Assumptions: spreads are net of funding cost; the reuse multiple applies only to the agency-payment spread (multi-round deployment). These returns correspond to the "finance + capital" layers in §03.

Business-model conclusion: The dual-loop converts "RMB 25bn external exposure" into "RMB 12bn BA assets + RMB 8bn recyclable funds," then amplifies via turnover and reuse into "RMB 43.8bn advance flow + RMB 22.4bn agency-payment flow," ultimately contributing ~RMB 1.7bn/yr in financial returns. The key is that funds stay onshore and are reused across rounds—an asset-light lever that drives large flows.
11

Financial Modeling (5-Year P&L · Cash Flow · Sensitivity)

Q · Financial Model
Net revenue uses the platform's recognized-revenue (take) basis, not full GMV. The blended take rate rises from 6% to 11% as finance/capital engines grow in share. The platform shows a classic "front-loaded investment, EBITDA turning positive in year 3" curve.

5-Year P&L Forecast (RMB bn)

Line item20262027202820292030E
GMV3.07.514.021.029.0
Blended take rate6.0%7.5%9.0%10.0%11.0%
Net revenue0.180.561.262.103.19
Gross margin40%45%50%54%57%
Gross profit0.070.250.631.131.82
Sales expense0.080.140.220.320.43
G&A expense0.050.100.180.280.39
R&D expense (BHDP)0.020.060.100.150.23
EBITDA-0.08-0.050.130.380.77
EBITDA margin10.3%18.1%24.1%
Net profit-0.09-0.060.080.280.58

Assumptions: gross margin rises with the share of high-margin platform/finance engines; expense ratios fall with scale; D&A, interest and tax are simplified to a RMB 0.01–0.19bn gap between EBITDA and net profit.

Net-Revenue Mix Evolution (stacked, RMB bn) + EBITDA Path 2026 0.18 2027 0.56 2028 1.26 2029 2.10 2030E 3.19 EBITDA 0.77 Trade Platform Finance Capital EBITDA path
Fig. 11-1 · Net-revenue mix shifts from "trade-led" to "four-layer balance"; EBITDA turns positive in 2028 and reaches 24.1% in 2030

Sensitivity Analysis · 2030E Net Profit (RMB bn)

GMV \ take rate9% (bear)11% (base)13% (bull)
RMB 23bn (-20%)0.290.420.56
RMB 29bn (base)0.410.580.76
RMB 35bn (+20%)0.530.740.97

Assumptions: net margin moves with take rate and scale (~13–28%). Even in the bear case (GMV -20% and 9% take), 2030 net profit remains positive (RMB 0.29bn)—indicating strong resilience.

EBITDA breakeven
2028
Year 3
2030 net margin
18.2%
RMB 0.58bn net profit
Net-revenue CAGR
105%
0.18→3.19 bn
Finance+capital share
35%
of 2030 net revenue
Financial conclusion: The model shows a "J-curve"—two years of strategic investment (BHDP build-out + client/supplier network), EBITDA turning positive in 2028, and 2030 net revenue of RMB 3.19bn, net profit RMB 0.58bn, EBITDA margin 24.1%. The finance + capital layers contribute 35% of net revenue at the highest margins—the source of valuation premium and counter-cyclical resilience. Sensitivity shows profitability even in the bear case.
12

SCO KPI Status (Dashboard · Achievement Rate · Phase Progress)

Q · SCO KPI Status
Progress on the 9 core SCO-collaboration KPIs is assessed as "2030 target vs. 2026 current." Currently in the P1 onboarding phase, the overall achievement rate is ~35%, consistent with first-year pacing (see §08 roadmap).

9 Core SCO-Collaboration KPIs · Dashboard

KPI2030 target2026 currentProgressRateStatus
Collaborators (no.)2818
64%
64%Ahead
JSPF PAL (RMB bn)1.750.80
46%
46%On track
Countries covered (no.)146
43%
43%On track
BHDP modules live (no.)125
42%
42%On track
Local-currency settlement share60%25%
42%
42%On track
Overseas bonded WH (m²)30,00010,000
33%
33%Accelerate
Policy loans (RMB bn)5.01.2
24%
24%Accelerate
BA pool size (RMB bn)12.02.0
17%
17%Early
GMV (RMB bn)29.03.0
10%
10%Early

Achievement rate = current / 2030 target. Early-stage KPIs (BA pool, GMV) catch up non-linearly in P2/P3 as the dual-loop scales, so low first-year ratios are expected.

KPI Achievement Radar (6 dimensions) Collaborators 64% JSPF 46% Countries 43% BHDP 42% LC settle 42% Bonded WH 33%
Fig. 12-1 · 6-dimension achievement radar (P1 onboarding profile)

Phase Completion (vs. §08 roadmap)

P1 Onboarding (2026-2027)60%

Qingdao SCODA registration ✓ · joined practical cooperation ✓ · first policy funding in progress

P2 Scale-up (2027-2028)15%

LC settlement-pool connection in preparation · GCC/Central Asia nodes being planned

P3 Platformization (2028-2030)0%

Regional digital infrastructure · BA ABS / 3-track IPO not started

Overall weighted rate
~35%
P1 onboarding
Leading item
Collab. 64%
Network forms fast
To accelerate
Bonded WH / policy loans
P1 priority push
Non-linear catch-up
BA pool / GMV
Scale in P2/P3
Next priorities (P1 push): ① Expand overseas bonded warehouse to 20,000 m² (currently 33%); ② Land the first tranche of policy loans at RMB 2.5bn (currently 24%); ③ Bring 3 more BHDP modules live (title registration / SWIFT gateway / smart contracts); ④ Push local-currency settlement share past 40%. These four are prerequisites for scaling the dual-loop.
YUJ v3.0 · Dual-Loop Strategy · Core Capabilities & SCO Collaboration
Six core questions (§01–§08) + Data Cockpit (§09 Deep-Dive Data · §10 Business Model · §11 Financial Model · §12 SCO KPI)
A standalone v3.0 strategic report; the existing evolution document (v1.0 → v2.0 → v3.0) is unchanged. Figures are strategic projections with key assumptions noted.
YUJ · SCO Strategic Document Library · v3.0 · 2026 — 2030 · Updated 2026-05
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